Tracking Poll on 2016 Presidential Races
Feb. 8: Still No Clear Challenger for Trump, Sanders Likely Winner
On the eighth and final release of poll data, the results look remarkably stable even when weighing a variety of surprise scenarios. An upset by Clinton for the Democrats looks unlikely at this point with Sanders at 56 percent (-1), Clinton 40 percent (no change). On the Republican side, the story continues to be who will take second to Trump (21 point lead) with nine percent of Republican voters still undecided for Tuesday's N.H. Primary.
Feb. 7: Republicans Jockey for Second
Much of the poll numbers continue to be static, so the question is who of the Republican candidates can pull into second and if Rubio's disastrous appearance at the Republican debate on Saturday will dash his chances. Trump is at 36% (+1). A Sanders win in the Democratic race seems more likely now that high profile opportunities for Clinton to cut into his lead are over (57%-40%).
Feb. 6: Much of Field Is Static on Both Sides
Trump and Sanders are still leading by significant margins (21% and 14%, respectively) and there's not a lot of movement in the rest of the field. However, on the Republican side, many voters are still likely to change their minds. Rubio's surge has stalled and Cruz has not seen any bounce from his win in Iowa. Clinton is beginning to make in-roads to the female vote, though Sanders continues to dominate in the youth vote.
Feb. 5: Race Tightening on Both Sides
Today is the first release with three days of post-Iowa Caucus data. It appears that Clinton’s win in Iowa has led to a sizable bump. She now trails Sanders by 15 points, 55%-40%. Trump continues to lead his nearest Republican challenger by 19 points. Cruz and Rubio show moderate gains.
Feb. 4: Clinton, Rubio Gaining
While Trump and Sanders still hold significant leads, Clinton and Rubio are showing moderate gains. Rubio is the only candidate from either party who has steadily increased each day of our tracking poll. Cruz, despite winning the Iowa Caucus, does not seem to be enjoying a bounce.
Feb. 3: Catch Me if You Can
Feb. 2: Democrats Certain; Republicans Uncertain
Feb. 1: Trump and Sanders Lead by Wide Margins
Despite widespread skepticism that their leads would not hold, with just eight days until the New Hampshire Presidential Primary, both Donald Trump, the well-known and controversial businessman/reality show star from New York, and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont lead by wide margins in our survey of New Hampshire likely primary voters. Trump leads by 26 percentage points over his nearest opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, while Sanders leads by 31 percentage points over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.