Both Hold Leads in Granite State Despite Second-place Finishes in Caucuses
02/03/2016
Detailed poll results are available at www.uml.edu/polls.
UMass Lowell representatives are available for interviews about today’s poll results.
Contact: Christine Gillette, 978-758-4664 (c), 978-934-2209 (w), Christine_Gillette@uml.edu
The third day of results from the UMass Lowell/7News tracking poll of 1,400 New Hampshire voters who were surveyed about candidates in the Feb. 9 Democratic and Republican primaries include:
- Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican field by a wide margin even after a second-place finish in Iowa on Monday night. Trump’s lead over his nearest rival is 24 points and he is steady with the support of 38 percent of likely Republican primary voters polled. Ted Cruz is in second place at 14 percent (no change over yesterday) and Marco Rubio is in third at 12 percent (up 2 percent). Jeb Bush held his 9 percent support, followed by John Kasich at 7 percent (down 2 percent) and Chris Christie at 6 percent (up 1 percent). Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are tied at 3 percent of support and Rand Paul is at 2 percent.
- In what is now a two-person race, Bernie Sanders continues to hold a 29-point lead, with the support of 61 percent of likely Democratic primary voters over 32 percent who support Hillary Clinton. This is a net change of 4 percentage points from yesterday’s results, which had Sanders leading by 33 points. Clinton picked up 2 points over yesterday.
- With less than a week to go before New Hampshire voters go to the polls, Trump and Sanders have commanding leads. Trump is ahead of Republican candidates in all age, gender, income and education categories. He does best among voters with annual incomes less than $50,000 (47 percent) and those with high school diplomas or fewer years of education (60 percent), compared to those with annual incomes more than $100,000 (33 percent) and those with a college degree (25 percent). Forty-three percent of male and 32 percent of women Republican primary voters support Trump.
- Sanders leads Clinton among voters in all age, gender, education and income categories surveyed. Sanders, an Independent senator from Vermont, draws his strongest support from Independent and unaffiliated New Hampshire voters who intend to vote in the Democratic primary, with the support of 67 percent of Independents and 58 percent of Democrats. Sanders also is favored by 63 percent of male voters and 59 percent of women voters, compared to Clinton, who has the support of 29 percent of men and 35 percent of women.
- Today’s tracking poll results show a preliminary assessment of the “Iowa bounce,” which appears to be plus 2 percent for Rubio and a net gain of 4 percent for Clinton so far. A more complete picture will appear in tomorrow’s results.
Detailed analysis of today’s results and full polling data, including methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.
Each night through Feb. 7, the UMass Lowell/7NEWS tracking poll is asking New Hampshire voters, including likely Democratic and Republican primary voters, about who they plan to vote for, how firm they are on that choice and who they think will be the next president be. Poll results are being released daily at 7 a.m. through Monday, Feb. 8.
Results of the poll being reported today are based on interviews with a random sample of 1,410 New Hampshire registered voters and a sub-sample of 415 Democratic primary likely voters and 502 Republican primary likely voters. Data was collected via live interviewers via landline and cellular telephones over the last three nights. The survey used a probability-based, random-digit-dial methodology with a dual-frame design for landline and cellular telephone surveys conducted by live interviewers. Final results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies based on the American Community Survey for New Hampshire. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.92 percent for all registered voters, plus or minus 4.8 percent for likely Republican primary voters and plus or minus 5.4 percent for likely Democratic primary voters.
The independent, nonpartisan poll was conducted by UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion in partnership with 7News. More than 12,000 UMass Lowell graduates, students and employees are New Hampshire residents. The Center for Public Opinion hosts programs and conducts polls on political, social, economic and cultural issues to provide real-world opportunities for civic engagement, research and experiential learning to the campus and the community.
UMass Lowell is a national research university located on a high-energy campus in the heart of a global community. The university offers its 17,500 students bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral degrees in business, education, engineering, fine arts, health, humanities, sciences and social sciences. UMass Lowell delivers high-quality educational programs, vigorous hands-on learning and personal attention from leading faculty and staff, all of which prepare graduates to be ready for work, for life and for all the world offers. www.uml.edu