Latest N.H. Tracking Poll: Clinton Gains on Sanders

02/04/2016

Detailed poll results are available at www.uml.edu/polls. 

UMass Lowell representatives are available for interviews about today’s poll results. 

Contact: Christine Gillette, 978-758-4664 (c), 978-934-2209 (w), Christine_Gillette@uml.edu 

The fourth day of results from the UMass Lowell/7News tracking poll of 1,400 New Hampshire voters who were surveyed about candidates in the Feb. 9 Democratic and Republican primaries include: 

• Hillary Clinton gained ground against Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary race. She now trails Sanders by 22 points among likely voters, 58 percent (Sanders) to 36 percent (Clinton). While Sanders still has a large lead, this change represents a four-point increase for Clinton and a three-point decrease for Sanders since yesterday’s results, a net change of 7 percentage points. It remains to be seen if this is an “Iowa bounce” for Clinton – who was down as much as 33 points earlier in this tracking poll – since her win in the Democratic caucus earlier this week or the start of another comeback. In 2008, Clinton came back after trailing Barack Obama in the polls by double-digits to win in New Hampshire. 
• Donald Trump leads his nearest opponent by 21 points among likely Republican primary voters, but is down two percentage points from yesterday’s poll results. Marco Rubio gained another three points to reach 15 percent – passing Ted Cruz, who remained steady at 14 percent despite his win in Iowa – to move into second place. Cruz, in third place, is followed by Jeb Bush with 8 percent (down 1 point since yesterday), John Kasich at 7 percent (no change), Chris Christie at 5 percent (down 1), Ben Carson at 4 percent (up 1 point) and Carly Fiorina at 3 percent (no change). 
• Rubio is the only candidate in either the Republican or Democratic primary race to increase his share of the vote every day in the UMass Lowell/7NEWS tracking poll and his latest apparent gain indicates his strong third-place finish in Iowa may have strengthened his position in the Granite State. Trends suggest that if anyone is to pose a challenge to Trump in New Hampshire, it is most likely Rubio. Rubio’s gains are strongest among registered Republicans: two days ago, he had 11 percent of their support, while today he has 18 percent, a seven-point increase. He has also seen an eight-point increase among women since Tuesday’s results, up from 12 percent to 20 percent support. Rubio’s support among older voters (65 and older) has doubled from 11 percent to 22 percent since Tuesday. However, Trump continues to lead in all categories – age, gender, income and education level – of Republican voters polled. 
• In the Democratic primary race, Sanders continues to lead among younger voters by wide margins (87 percent among 18- to 29-year-olds and 74 percent among those ages 30 to 39), as well as with those with lower family incomes (67 percent support of those with annual incomes of $50,000 or less) and among liberals (62 percent to 35 percent who prefer Clinton). Independents are bolstering Sanders’ lead, but an increase in Independents saying they are likely to vote in the Republican primary may be helping Clinton narrow his lead. Clinton increased her support among 30- to 39-year-olds by 5 percent, reaching 21 percent, compared to where she was in Tuesday’s tracking poll results. She is also leading and has her strongest support among voters who have a graduate degree, where she leads by 5 points, 49 percent over 44 percent who support Sanders. Among male voters, Sanders leads 61 percent to 32 percent who favor Clinton and 56 percent of women voters support Sanders over 39 percent who support Clinton. 
• Today’s tracking poll results show results from polling Monday, Feb. 1 through Wednesday, Feb. 3, which represents data collection on two of three nights after the Iowa caucuses. Today’s results offer more evidence of the “Iowa bounce” that is apparently helping Clinton and Rubio. Tomorrow’s results will be based on data collected entirely after the caucuses. 

More details on poll results – including analysis, time-trend information for each day of the tracking poll, topline and crosstabs – are available at www.uml.edu/polls. 

Each night through Feb. 7, the UMass Lowell/7NEWS tracking poll is asking New Hampshire voters, including likely Democratic and Republican primary voters, about who they plan to vote for, how firm they are on that choice and who they think will be the next president be. Poll results are being released daily at 7 a.m. through Monday, Feb. 8. Results of the poll being reported today are based on interviews with a random sample of 1,410 New Hampshire registered voters and a sub-sample of 420 Democratic primary likely voters and 487 Republican primary likely voters. Data was collected in live interviewers via landline and cellular telephones over the last three nights. The survey used a probability-based, random-digit-dial methodology with a dual-frame design for landline and cellular telephone surveys conducted by live interviewers. Final results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies based on the American Community Survey for New Hampshire. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percent for all registered voters, plus or minus 4.9 percent for likely Republican primary voters and plus or minus 5.3 percent for likely Democratic primary voters. Additional details on methodology are available at www.uml.edu/polls. 

The independent, nonpartisan poll was conducted by UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion in partnership with 7News. More than 12,000 UMass Lowell graduates, students and employees are New Hampshire residents. The Center for Public Opinion hosts programs and conducts polls on political, social, economic and cultural issues to provide real-world opportunities for civic engagement, research and experiential learning to the campus and the community. UMass Lowell is a national research university located on a high-energy campus in the heart of a global community. 

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