Kornacki Predicts Trump-Biden Rematch in 2024 Presidential Election

Steve Kornacki analyzes voter support among different demographics.

By Marlon Pitter

NBC News and MSNBC National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki predicts a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Kornacki analyzed the 2022 midterm election results and polls about the favorability of various candidates to share insight into the upcoming election with dozens of students, faculty and community members at a recent event at O’Leary Library. 

Kornacki was on campus to kick off the College of Fine Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences Dean’s Speaker Series. The series continues with speakers throughout the year.

While Republican Party leaders believe alternative candidates to Trump such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are “more electable,” the former president holds commanding leads in polls of Republican voters, Kornacki said.

Meanwhile, the incumbent Biden has the support of Democratic Party leadership but holds a relatively low approval rating from voters within the party due to his age and the stagnancy of the economy, said Kornacki.

Head-to-head, Trump holds a slight edge over Biden in national poll results, while Biden is slightly favored over DeSantis.

With a tightly contested race on the horizon, Kornacki said the election will come down to several key states and turnout among specific demographic groups. Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are among states Biden won by slim margins in 2020, and Kornacki expects they will play a significant role again in 2024.

From 2016 to 2020, Hispanic support for Democrats fell, but the downturn tapered off in the 2022 midterms, Kornacki said. Turnout of Black voters and white swing voters will play a key role in the 2024 outcome, he added.

“The Hispanic vote and the Black vote take on particular importance … because that’s the other path for Donald Trump,” he said.

Kornacki said a higher-than-average turnout of young voters – between the ages of 18 and 29 – could boost Biden’s chances of winning.

“Of all the different age groups that were in the poll, they were the most friendly to Democrats – although that same group of voters was also the most hostile to both political parties,” he said.