Abbott, Hinojosa are close in contest for governor; respondents weigh in on Trump policies, AI data centers
10/08/2026
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Detailed poll results available at www.uml.edu/polls. UMass Lowell representatives are available for interviews.
LOWELL, Mass. – Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are tied in the race for the Lone Star state’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a UMass Lowell/YouGov poll issued Thursday.
The survey of 850 likely Texas voters shows Talarico and Paxton tied with 45% support each and 7% of respondents undecided. Two percent of polltakers said they will vote for Libertarian candidate Ted Brown, 1% said they will vote for another candidate and 1% said they will not vote.
Should Paxton win, his victory would extend the GOP’s hold on the seat currently held by Sen. John Cornyn, which stretches back to 1988. Paxton beat Cornyn in a Republican primary runoff in May. If Talarico is elected, the win could shift the balance of power in U.S. Congress.
In the top state race, poll findings show incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott with 48% support, compared with 44% support for Democratic challenger state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. One percent of those surveyed said they will vote for Libertarian candidate Pat Dixon, 6% are undecided and 1% said they will not vote. Abbott has been in the job since 2015.
“The last time Democrats won a U.S. Senate race in Texas, Ken Paxton didn’t yet have a law degree and James Talarico wasn’t even born. With the race tied, anything can happen between now and the election,” said John Cluverius, director of survey research for the Center for Public Opinion at UMass Lowell and an associate professor of political science. “Neither of the premier statewide races has a clear leader. Texas, a once-reliable rock, is starting to show some cracks.”
Fielded from Sept. 18 through Sept. 28, the poll carries an adjusted margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Trump, Abbott approval ratings dip since 2020
Less than half of respondents, 47%, approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance, while 53% disapprove, indicating a slightly lower net job approval than Trump had in the last UMass Lowell poll of Texas in October 2020, when the president registered 50% approval. In the current survey, Gov. Abbott’s job approval rating stands at 52%, similar to his job approval rating of 56% in the October 2020 poll.
Respondents say Trump policies are driving economic struggles
The Iran war garners low support from Texans, as 69% of respondents said the government spends too much on it. Fifty-five percent oppose additional military aid to Israel, while 45% of polltakers support it.
The Iran war is also the most significant factor driving up energy costs, according to 72% of respondents. Eleven percent named tariffs as the top cause while 8% said gas taxes, 5% said environmental regulations and 4% said Artificial Intelligence (AI) data centers.
In terms of the overall cost of living, 56% of respondents said it has become somewhat or much harder to pay for basic necessities in the last six months, while 34% said things have stayed about the same and only 10% said it has become easier.
“A majority of Texas likely voters say it has become harder to afford basic necessities, and more than eight in 10 identify the war in Iran or tariffs as the main reason for higher fuel and utility prices. These are not encouraging numbers for an incumbent during an election cycle. When voters connect rising costs at home with specific government policies, those concerns can become politically consequential, potentially punishing the party in power,” said Political Science Associate Professor Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, the center’s associate director.
AI not A-OK
Respondents do not want an AI data center to be built in their community, with 65% opposed. That opposition cuts across age, gender and racial identity. Further, 56% of respondents support a statewide ban on building new data centers or expanding existing ones.
Funded by UMass Lowell, the nonpartisan online survey was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov. Detailed poll results, including topline and full methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.
Marking its 15th anniversary year, the Center for Public Opinion at UMass Lowell presents events and conducts polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research. The center is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.