Maine Poll: Jackson Slightly Ahead in U.S. Senate Race

09/24/2026

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Detailed poll results available at www.uml.edu/polls. UMass Lowell representatives are available for interviews.

LOWELL, Mass. – Democratic challenger Troy Jackson is slightly ahead of Republican incumbent Susan Collins in the race for Maine’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a UMass Lowell/YouGov poll issued Thursday.

The survey of 650 likely Maine voters shows Jackson, a former state Senate president, is up by five points with the support of 48% of respondents, compared with 43% for Collins, while 1% of respondents said they will vote for another candidate, 6% said they are undecided, and 1% said they will not vote.

Should Collins win, she would extend her 30-year tenure in the chamber. A victory by Jackson, a fifth-generation logger, could help shift the balance of power in the U.S. Congress.

“Susan Collins wins elections in Maine by getting Democrats and independents to vote for her. It’s her superpower. But this year, rising prices, an unpopular war and an unpopular president are looking like electoral kryptonite. One potential swing factor to watch for is that poll results show a lot of women respondents are either undecided or not firmly committed to Collins or Jackson,” said John Cluverius, director of survey research for the Center for Public Opinion at UMass Lowell and an associate professor of political science.

In the race to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, Democrat Hannah Pingree, a former Maine state House speaker, is ahead by 11 points with the support of 49% of poll respondents, compared with 38% who favor Republican Bobby Charles. Ten percent of those surveyed are undecided, 1% of respondents said they will vote for another candidate, and 2% said they will not vote. New to campaigning for elective office, Charles previously served in the State Department during President George W. Bush’s administration.

Fielded from Aug. 28 through Sept. 14, the poll carries an adjusted margin of error of +/-4.66 percentage points. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Respondents blame Trump policies for higher costs

The survey also reveals Maine voters’ displeasure with President Donald Trump’s administration. Poll results show his approval rating in the state is 37%, while 64% of respondents disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Seventy-two percent of respondents said the country is on the wrong track, while 28% said the country is headed in the right direction.

Sixty-three percent of poll respondents said that, over the last six months, it has become harder to pay for basic necessities. When asked about the conditions that inform those responses, 78% of polltakers identified the war in Iran (61%) or tariffs (17%) as the factor most responsible for higher fuel and utility prices.

The war in Iran garners low support from respondents, with 71% believing the government is spending too much on the conflict. Among respondents, 64% oppose additional military aid to Israel, while 36% support it.

“These findings represent a major challenge for the Trump administration. A majority of Maine likely voters say it has become harder to afford basic necessities and a majority blame the war in Iran for higher fuel and utility prices. When voters connect economic pressure to government policy, it can have important political consequences, particularly in midterm elections,” said Political Science Associate Professor Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, the center’s associate director.

Respondents oppose big tech in their backyard

Opposition to data centers that support Artificial Intelligence (AI) computing appears to be growing: In the current poll, 76% of respondents – including a majority of all demographic groups questioned in the survey – are against building an artificial intelligence (AI) data center in their community, with 58% of respondents who said they are strongly opposed. That number is greater than 51% of respondents who said they were strongly opposed when asked the same question in a UMass Lowell/YouGov survey issued in June. Further, in the current poll, a majority of respondents, 55%, support a statewide ban on building new data centers or expanding existing ones.

In another emerging issue connected to big data, 58% of respondents said they support a ban on automated license plate reader cameras in their community, while 42% oppose such a ban.

Funded by UMass Lowell, the nonpartisan online survey was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov. Detailed poll results, including topline and full methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.

Marking its 15th anniversary year, the Center for Public Opinion at UMass Lowell presents events and conducts polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research. The center is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.