Apparent Lead Tightens in Keystone State's U.S. Senate Race
10/31/2024
Six days out from Election Day, the presidential race is about even in the Keystone State, according to the latest UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and YouGov poll. Vice President Kamala Harris stands at 48% of support from likely voters while former President Donald Trump has 47% among 800 likely Pennsylvania general election voters.
Noting the closeness of the race, political science Assistant Professor Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, associate director of the Center for Public Opinion said: “This election is increasingly likely to be won or lost on turnout. The party that is able to effectively mobilize its voters will be the one to secure Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes."
No other candidate received more than 1% of support from respondents in the survey, while 4% said they were undecided. The race remains largely unchanged from a previous UMass Lowell and YouGov poll released earlier this month that showed Harris at 46% and Trump at 45%.
One sign the race remains anyone’s game is that voters rate the candidates differently on a variety of personal and policy characteristics. More respondents said Trump would do a better job handling immigration policy (53%) than Harris (40%) while voters favor Harris’ take on abortion 51% to 38%.
Simultaneous polls were released Thursday outlining the perspectives of likely voters in Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina. Complete data, including state race information, can be found at uml.edu/polls.
Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Race
Senator Bob Casey Jr. leads David McCormick in the race for U.S. Senate, 48% to 42%, respectively. No other candidate received support from more than 2% of respondents and 7% remain undecided.
“Casey is counting on name recognition to win the day, while McCormick is trying to bring home voters who just aren’t very familiar with him,” said political science Associate Professor John Cluverius, the Center for Public Opinion’s director of survey research.
An Oct. 17 UMass Lowell poll showed 48% of likely voters supporting Casey and 39% supporting McCormick. In that poll, no other candidate received support from more than 1% of respondents, and 10% were undecided.
Additional questions in the poll covered attitudes about the economy, abortion, foreign policy, Taylor Swift, Gritty and a host of other Pennsylvania-centered topics.
Poll findings issued Thursday are the result of an online-based survey conducted, Wednesday, Oct. 16, through Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024, that carries a margin of error of plus/minus 3.73 percentage points.
The nonpartisan poll was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell. The survey was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov. Detailed poll results, including topline and full methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.
UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion presents events and polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research. The center is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.
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