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Latest N.H. Tracking Poll: Clinton Continues to Gain on Sanders

Clinton Surges, Trump’s Lead Narrows as Races Tighten

Polling on computer

02/05/2016

Detailed poll results are available at www.uml.edu/polls

UMass Lowell representatives are available for interviews about today’s poll results. 

Contact: Christine Gillette, 978-758-4664 (c), 978-934-2209 (w), Christine_Gillette@uml.edu 

The fifth day of results from the UMass Lowell/7News tracking poll of 1,400 New Hampshire voters who were surveyed about candidates in the Feb. 9 Democratic and Republican primaries include: 

  • Hillary Clinton has again gained on Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary race. She now trails Sanders by 15 points, 55 percent to 40 percent. Clinton is up four points and Sanders is down three points, a net change of 7 percentage points over yesterday’s results, While Sanders still has a double-digit lead, Clinton has closed the gap by 16 points since the first day of results in the UMass Lowell/7NEWS tracking poll, when she trailed Sanders 61 percent to 30 percent. Clinton’s win in Iowa has led to a sizable bump in support among likely Democratic primary voters.
  • Donald Trump continues to lead among likely Republican primary voters by 19 points with 34 percent of support, but that lead is down another two percentage points since yesterday’s results and four points since the first day’s results of the UMass Lowell/7NEWS tracking poll. Marco Rubio – who had previously gained in every day of the tracking poll – remains unchanged from yesterday at 15 percent. Ted Cruz also remains steady at 14 percent. John Kasich gained one point to reach 8 percent and is now tied with Jeb Bush, who saw no change in support from yesterday. Chris Christie remained at 5 percent and both Ben Carson, 4 percent, and Carly Fiorina, 3 percent, saw no change from yesterday. 
  • While most Republican candidates saw no change in support from yesterday, voters are still making up their minds. In addition to the 8 percent who are undecided, 42 percent of those polled say they could change their minds. Support for Trump remains the strongest, with the smallest percentage of voters (26 percent) who said they could change their minds before next week’s primary, followed by Cruz (31 percent). Sixty-two percent of Christie supporters said they could change their minds, followed by 53 percent among Rubio supporters, 51 percent among those for Bush and Carson, 37 among Kasich supporters and 35 percent of those for Fiorina. On the Democratic side, equal numbers (19 percent) of voters who favor Sanders and Clinton reported that they could still change their minds.
  • Among Democratic primary voters, Sanders is maintaining a huge lead with younger voters, 89 percent among 18- to 29-year olds. He also gets 72 percent of support from the age 30 to 39 group, 53 percent of support of voters ages 40 to 49 and 56 percent support from 50- to 64-year-olds. The only age category where Sanders loses to Clinton is in the 65 and older group, 39 percent to 54 percent. Sanders support has softened the most among voters older than 40; he is down seven points since yesterday’s results among 40- to 49-year-olds and four points among 50- to 64-year-olds. Sanders also continues to lead among Independents by a large margin, 62 percent to 53 percent who support Clinton, but that lead has decreased since yesterday when it was 66 percent to 30 percent for Clinton.
  • Trump continues to poll strongly, leading in every category – age, education, gender and income – surveyed. He has equal support, 34 percent, among registered Republicans and Independents, and nearly equal support among men (35 percent) and women (33 percent). His largest support continues to be among voters with a high-school diploma or fewer years of education, 46 percent, but that is down 7 points from yesterday.
  • Today’s tracking poll results also include data on six hypothetical match-ups in the general election, pitting both Sanders and Clinton against the three highest-polling Republican candidates. In all of the matchups – except Clinton vs. Rubio – the Democratic candidate won New Hampshire, a battleground state in the 2016 election. 

Details on the outcomes of those trial heats along with more information about today’s tracking poll results – including analysis, time-trend information for each day of the tracking poll, topline and crosstabs – are available at www.uml.edu/polls.

Each night through Feb. 7, the UMass Lowell/7NEWS tracking poll is asking New Hampshire voters, including likely Democratic and Republican primary voters, about who they plan to vote for, how firm they are on that choice and who they think will be the next president be. Poll results are being released daily at 7 a.m. through Monday, Feb. 8.

Results of the poll being reported today are based on interviews with a random sample of 1,417 New Hampshire registered voters and a sub-sample of 434 Democratic primary likely voters and 500 Republican primary likely voters. Data was collected in live interviewers via landline and cellular telephones over the last three nights. The survey used a probability-based, random-digit-dial methodology with a dual-frame design for landline and cellular telephone surveys conducted by live interviewers. Final results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies based on the American Community Survey for New Hampshire. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.89 percent for all registered voters, plus or minus 4.8 percent for likely Republican primary voters and plus or minus 5.24 percent for likely Democratic primary voters. Additional details on methodology are available at www.uml.edu/polls.

The independent, nonpartisan poll was conducted by UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion in partnership with 7News. More than 12,000 UMass Lowell graduates, students and employees are New Hampshire residents. The Center for Public Opinion hosts programs and conducts polls on political, social, economic and cultural issues to provide real-world opportunities for civic engagement, research and experiential learning to the campus and the community.

The university offers its 17,500 students bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral degrees in business, education, engineering, fine arts, health, humanities, sciences and social sciences. UMass Lowell delivers high-quality educational programs, hands-on learning and personal attention from leading faculty and staff, all of which prepare graduates to be ready for work, for life and for all the world offers. www.uml.edu