Pollster Available to Discuss How Nov. 7 Outcomes May Shape the Race’s Future
UMass Lowell political scientist John Cluverius is available as a source for reporters covering U.S. elections.
11/13/2023
Media Contacts: Emily Gowdey-Backus, director of media relations and Nancy Cicco, assistant director of media relations
Strong wins for Democrats on Election Night Tuesday, Nov. 7, juxtaposed against President Joe Biden’s dismal approval rating pose a problem for pollsters, according to UMass Lowell political scientist John Cluverius.
They simply don’t know what is going to happen next.
“We would not expect these off-year election results with a president who has this approval rating. Something isn’t adding up,” said Cluverius, associate director of UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion.
Voters last night in key races delivered for the Democratic agenda time and again, Cluverius said, whether it be regaining control of Virginia’s General Assembly or returning Democrat Andy Beshear to the governor’s mansion in Kentucky. Meanwhile, fueled by a strong turnout of liberals, Ohio voters enshrined abortion rights in the state’s constitution, making the Buckeye State the latest to uphold the right since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the federal protection last year.
But, polls released this week by CNN and The New York Times/Siena College indicate the Democratic president trails presumptive GOP nominee and former President Donald Trump in the 2024 race for the White House. Reuters/Ipsos pegs Biden’s approval rating with voters at 39%, the lowest since April.
Even so, voters disinterested in these outcomes and poll findings may be the deciders in the 2024 election, according to Cluverius.
“Fewer voters are paying attention to politics now than in 2019. The big question for 2024 is what are voters who are normally less interested in politics going to do? How will they vote, where are they going to end up?” Cluverius said. “We know Biden’s approval rating is bad. Does that mean voters are still willing to vote for him and other Democratic candidates over Trump, or does it mean voters are open to voting for other Democrats but not Biden?”
Cluverius is also available to discuss:
- Why Republicans are failing to sway public opinion on reproductive rights
- How perceptions of the economy among voters could affect Biden’s reelection, and
- Whether Biden will drop out of the race to make way for a new generation of Democrats
An authority on U.S. politics and political methodology, Cluverius is an associate professor in UMass Lowell’s political science department. To arrange an interview with him, contact Emily Gowdey-Backus or Nancy Cicco.