10/28/2014
Eagle-Tribune
Republican Baker has the support of 45 percent of likely voters surveyed, compared to 41 percent for Coakley, a Democrat, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent for likely voters. Independent candidates Evan Falchuk, Jeff McCormick and Scott Lively received a combined 6 percent support. Eight percent of likely voters reported they are undecided about their choice for governor.
“The momentum is clearly with Baker. Compared to our August survey of Massachusetts voters, Baker has gained five points on Coakley,” said Professor Joshua Dyck, co-director of the Center for Public Opinion, who wrote and analyzed the poll, adding that Baker’s edge is bolstered by the higher percentage of Republicans who are likely voters than Democrats and strong support among independents, with whom Baker leads by 23 points.
The independent, nonpartisan poll was conducted by UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion in partnership with 7News of Boston from Oct. 21 through Oct. 25. Results are based on interviews, done by live interviewers via landline and cellular telephones, with a random sample of 1,001 Massachusetts registered voters and a subset of 601 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percent for registered voters.
In a state where Democratic Party-identifiers (54 percent) far exceed the number of voters who identify with the Republican Party (31 percent), Republican candidates must be seen as likable by both groups to succeed, according to Dyck, acting chairman of UMass Lowell’s Political Science Department. Baker not only leads by a sizable margin among independent voters, but he is also supported by 16 percent of voters who identify with the Democratic Party, Dyck said.
Baker’s net favorability rating among likely voters is plus 17 (52 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable) compared to Coakley’s plus seven (50 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable). When asked which candidate is personally more likable, 50 percent said Baker compared to 32 percent who said Coakley. And when asked which is more “independent-minded,” 47 percent chose Baker compared to 32 percent for Coakley.
“The shift in this race can be attributed to the fact that likely voters view Charlie Baker as more moderate, more independent-minded and more likable than Martha Coakley. His favorability rating is 10 points higher than Coakley’s and asked which candidate is more likable, Baker leads by 18 points among likely voters. It is very telling that, when asked which candidate is likely to win the election, the candidates poll nearly even at 45 percent for Coakley and 43 percent for Baker,” said Dyck, who explained that with so many Democratic-leaning voters in Massachusetts, being nearly even is a positive sign for the Republican.
On some of the key issues in the race, voters surveyed see Baker as stronger on the economy, 53 percent to 33 percent, and Coakley as stronger on education, 48 percent to 35 percent.
The poll also found that three of the four referendum questions on the ballot – including the casino repeal – do not have the support needed to pass. Almost one in 10 likely voters said they plan to vote against all four questions.
On Question 1, which would repeal the section of the gas tax that sets increases to the rate of inflation as determined by the Consumer Price Index, 54 percent of likely voters said they plan to vote no compared to 40 percent who plan to vote yes and 6 percent undecided.
Only one in four likely voters (26 percent) said they will vote in favor of Question 2, which would expand the state’s bottle bill to include a deposit for non-alcoholic, non-carbonated beverages containers. Seventy-two percent of voters said they will vote against the measure.
On Question 3, which would repeal the state’s casino-gaming law, 60 percent of voters surveyed said they would vote no, compared to 39 percent who would vote yes. The poll found that voters with graduate degrees are the only demographic category with a majority (55 percent) that supports the repeal.
Question 4, which would change the rules about earned sick time for workers in Massachusetts, is the only question that has strong support for passage. Sixty percent of likely voters – including 66 percent of women – said they plan to vote in favor of the question while 35 percent said they would vote no. The measure is supported by 80 percent of Democrats while 57 percent of Republicans oppose it.