Skip to Main Content

New Tracking Poll: Trump Leads GOP Pack in N.H.

Sanders Leads Clinton in Democratic Primary Race

Polling on computer

02/01/2016

Detailed poll results are available at www.uml.edu/polls

UMass Lowell representatives are available for interviews about today’s poll results. 

Contact: Christine Gillette, 978-758-4664 (c), 978-934-2209 (w), Christine_Gillette@uml.edu 

New results from the UMass Lowell/7News tracking poll of 1,400 New Hampshire voters who were surveyed about candidates in the Feb. 9 Democratic and Republican primaries include: 

  • Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders are leading in polling of likely voters in their respective primary races, Trump by 26 percentage points and Sanders by 31 percent. 
  • Trump leads the field of GOP candidates with the support of 38 percent of likely Republican primary voters surveyed. Ted Cruz is second with 12 percent, followed by Jeb Bush and John Kasich tied at 9 percent, Marco Rubio with 8 percent, Chris Christie with 7 percent, Ben Carson and Rand Paul with 3 percent each, Carly Fiorina at 2 percent and Rick Santorum at 1 percent. 
  • Sanders has the support of 61 percent of likely Democratic primary voters polled, compared to 30 percent who favor Hillary Clinton and 1 percent for Martin O’Malley. Sanders’ support is bolstered by young Democratic primary voters (ages 18 to 29), 89 percent of whom prefer Sanders to Clinton. Clinton polled best among older voters (ages 65 and up), but still trails Sanders by 4 points, 43 to 47 percent, in that group. 
  • Trump’s strongest support is among men (42 percent) and voters with lower levels of education. Forty-six percent of likely voters polled who have a high-school diploma or fewer years of education favor Trump, compared to those with a post-graduate degree, 18 percent of whom said they would vote for him. Trump’s support is consistent across voters of all income levels and between moderates and conservatives. Cruz leads among voters identified as the most religious with 27 percent, followed by Trump with 24 percent. 

Detailed analysis of results along with full polling data, including methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls. The UMass Lowell/ 7News tracking poll results are being released daily at 7 a.m. from Monday, Feb. 1 through Monday, Feb. 8. 

Results of the poll are based on interviews with a random sample of 1,413 New Hampshire registered voters and a sub-sample of 442 Democratic primary likely voters and 461 Republican primary likely voters. Data was collected via live interviewers via landline (53 percent) and cellular (47 percent) telephones over the last three nights. The survey used a probability-based, random-digit-dial methodology with a dual-frame design for landline and cellular telephone surveys conducted by live interviewers. Final results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies based on the American Community Survey for New Hampshire. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.97 percent for all registered voters, plus or minus 5.1 percent for likely Republican primary voters and plus or minus 5.3 percent for likely Democratic primary voters. 

The independent, nonpartisan poll was conducted by UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion in partnership with 7News. More than 12,000 UMass Lowell graduates, students and employees are New Hampshire residents. The Center for Public Opinion hosts programs and conducts polls on political, social, economic and cultural issues to provide real-world opportunities for civic engagement, research and experiential learning to the campus and the community. 

UMass Lowell is a national research university located on a high-energy campus in the heart of a global community. The university offers its 17,500 students bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral degrees in business, education, engineering, fine arts, health, humanities, sciences and social sciences. UMass Lowell delivers high-quality educational programs, vigorous hands-on learning and personal attention from leading faculty and staff, all of which prepare graduates to be ready for work, for life and for all the world offers. www.uml.edu