Markey, Healey each hold margins greater than 25 points in Mass.
Image by Alexa Feldmann 10/28/2026
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LOWELL, Mass. – Less than a week before the general election, voters in New Hampshire are narrowly divided on whom they’ll support in races for U.S. Senate and governor, while voters in Massachusetts appear more decisive, with the exception of ballot questions calling for all-party primaries and looser restrictions on single-family housing.
Voters in New Hampshire and Massachusetts responded to two separate UMass Lowell/YouGov surveys, results of which were released Wednesday. Early voting is already underway ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
New Hampshire: Pappas, Ayotte slightly ahead in respective races
In the Granite State race for U.S. Senate, the survey of 600 likely voters shows Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas is slightly ahead of Republican former U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu, 48% to 41%, while 4% of respondents support Constitution Party candidate Edmond LaPlante and 7% are undecided.
“While the Democrats are polling well nationally in the 2026 midterms, their pathway to control of the Senate is extremely narrow. New Hampshire is a state they cannot lose. Pappas is holding the line against Sununu, but this race, like most statewide races in New Hampshire in recent memory, remains close,” said UMass Lowell Professor Joshua Dyck, co-director of the university’s Center for Public Opinion and chair of the Political Science Department.
In the governor’s race, poll results show incumbent Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte slightly ahead of Democratic former executive councilor Cinde Warmington, 48% to 42%, while 3% of respondents support Libertarian candidate Stephen Villee and 7% are undecided.
“From 2016 on, Democrats have consistently won Senate races in New Hampshire, while Republicans have consistently won governor’s races, and this year appears no different. New Hampshire appears to have the most consistent ticket-splitting behavior pattern in the country,” said John Cluverius, the center’s co-director and an associate professor of political science.
Fielded from Oct. 2 through Oct. 19, the New Hampshire poll carries an adjusted margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.
Massachusetts: Markey, Healey in the driver’s seat
Image by Alexa Feldmann Incumbent Democratic Gov. Maura Healey also holds a commanding lead. She is 28 percentage points ahead of Republican challenger Mike Minogue in the governor’s race, according to the survey, with 57% support from respondents, compared with Minogue’s 29%. Independent candidate and activist Andrea James trails with 4%, while 8% are undecided and 2% said they will not vote.
“Massachusetts was already deep blue in presidential elections, but these poll results show an even worse environment for Republicans this year. Less than 80% of Trump voters plan to vote for the Republican nominee for governor, and less than 70% of respondents who voted for Trump in 2024 say they’ll vote for the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. Massachusetts Republicans haven’t found the bottom yet,” Cluverius said.
Fielded from Oct. 7 through Oct. 18, the Massachusetts survey of 850 likely voters carries a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.
Presidential approval ratings a liability for Republicans
Trump receives low marks as president from a majority of respondents in both polls. Among likely Granite State likely voters, 61% disapprove of his job performance. Notably, 22% of self-identified Republicans and 24% of respondents who said they voted for Trump in 2024 disapprove of the job he is doing.
In the Bay State poll, 74% of respondents disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while 25% approve, resulting in a -49 net approval, lower than the -36 net approval recorded in a 2020 UMass Lowell/YouGov poll of Massachusetts registered voters.
Polls: AI does not always compute
Survey respondents in both states also find common ground when it comes to AI data centers.
In the New Hampshire poll, more than two-thirds of respondents (67%) oppose the construction of an AI data center in their community, including 44% who voted for Trump in 2024. Further, 62% support a statewide ban on data center construction and expansion.
The results are much the same in Massachusetts where 72% of poll respondents oppose the construction of an AI data center in their community, including 44% of respondents who voted for Donald Trump in 2024. Fifty-two percent support a statewide ban on data center construction and expansion.
“Our polls reveal widespread skepticism toward the tech industry in New Hampshire and Massachusetts. About two-thirds of likely voters oppose AI data centers in their communities, while a majority support a statewide ban on their construction and expansion. This skepticism cuts across partisan lines. These findings reveal a growing disconnect between the rapid expansion of the industry and a public increasingly distrustful of its impact,” said Political Science Associate Professor Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, the center’s assistant director.
Massachusetts voters consider ballot questions
In addition to voting in races for elective office, Bay State voters will consider nine ballot referendums.
The closest election measured in the poll is the vote on Massachusetts Question 3, which, if endorsed, would adopt a single all-party primary for the state. The poll shows the two sides about even: 41% of likely voters said they will vote yes on the measure, while 44% said they will vote against the measure and 15% are undecided.
A set of questions in the survey that focused on ballot Question 7 was written by UMass Lowell student Pearlxis Kwarteng, a political science major from Worcester. If passed, the initiative would allow single-family homes to be built in residentially zoned lots of 5,000 square feet or more, subject to reasonable local regulation. Poll results show 53% of respondents favor the initiative, while 31% oppose the measure and 16% are undecided.
Funded by UMass Lowell, the nonpartisan online survey was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov. Detailed poll results, including topline and full methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.
Marking its 15th anniversary year, the Center for Public Opinion at UMass Lowell presents events and conducts polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research. The center is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.