11/06/2023
By Lynne Schaufenbil
Title: The Science of Forecasting Instabilities in the SPARTA Center of Excellence
Abstract: Spread F is probably the most well-known phenomenon in the ionospheric community. The broad spectrum of density irregularities associated with the Rayleigh-Taylor instability causes propagation effects a wide range of radio signals spanning the HF through UHF frequency bands. Longitudinal differences in seasonal activity patterns, largely explained by the relationship between the local magnetic field geometry and the solar terminator orientation, have been well established through a combination of ground- and space-based observations over the last three decades. More recently, an analysis of daily spread F occurrence as determined by low latitude VHF scintillation activity shows results that are statistically consistent with previously established climatology, but the level of day-to-day variability in the occurrence data exhibit marked variations with longitude. These intriguing results are not fully understood yet, but the implications are clear: at least in limited longitude windows, seasonal factors control the occurrence of spread F irregularities with little variability; indeed, perhaps one or two physical parameters are dominant in determining the evolution of the relevant instability. The findings sparked an idea that ultimately led to the recent creation of the NASA-sponsored Space Weather Research & Technology Applications (SPARTA) Center of Excellence. The multi-institutional Center is focused on global irregularity forecasting and prediction of associated wave propagation effects. The presentation will outline the scientific results and describe the organization and approach of the SPARTA CoE in addressing this important aspect of space weather.
Bio: Keith Groves is the Interim Director of the Institute for Scientific Research at Boston College where he is the principal investigator of the SPARTA CoE and manages a team of 25 scientists and engineers studying the ionosphere, space weather and radio physics. He joined Boston College in 2011 after nearly two decades as a researcher and program manager at the Air Force Research Laboratory where he developed a network of more than 50 real-time ground-based sensors and specification model known as the Scintillation Network Decision Aid (SCINDA). He is an international expert in ionospheric scintillation who has authored and co-authored more than 150 papers. Groves' efforts in capacity building activities earned him the AGU Space Physics and Aeronomy Richard Carrington (SPARC) in 2021. He is currently the Chair of URSI Commission G and the Ionospheric Effects Symposium, and also serves as an advisor to multiple national and international scientific programs.
Please contact Lynne_Schaufenbil@uml.edu if you wish to attend.