Voters Support Reproductive Rights and Office Age Limits, Split on Aid for Israel and Ukraine
12/21/2023
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Detailed poll results and analysis are available at www.uml.edu/polls. UMass Lowell experts are available for interviews.
Former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead for the Granite State Republican party’s nomination in the 2024 race for the White House, with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in a not-so-close second – she trails by 30 points – according to poll results issued Thursday by UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion and YouGov.
Of 450 likely Granite State primary voters surveyed, 52% would vote for Trump, while 22% signaled they would vote for Haley, who once served as Trump’s U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and was endorsed in the race by N.H. Gov. Chris Sununu last week.
“The poll results throw cold water on any traction Haley thought she had,” said UMass Lowell’s John Cluverius, the center’s director of survey research and an associate professor of political science. “Despite an endorsement from Sununu – whom the poll found enjoys an 80% favorability rating among respondents – and her attempt to thread the needle on abortion, she can’t seem to close the deal.”
Against Haley, Trump leads in every demographic category, and she fares worse among female respondents than male, he added.
Candidates trailing behind include Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (10%), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (6%), entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (4%), and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (1%). Less than .5% of respondents support another candidate, and 5% of likely primary voters are undecided, the poll found.
The survey was conducted from Thursday, Dec. 7, through Monday, Dec. 18, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points. The first-in-the-nation N.H. primary election is Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2024.
The survey results appear to solidify Trump’s hold on the state, as he handily won the New Hampshire GOP presidential primary in 2020. Today’s findings show Trump supporters to be the most stalwart of backers among the candidates, as 79% responded they would definitely vote for him. In contrast, 47% of Haley’s supporters said they would definitely vote for her, while 53% said they could still change their minds.
When asked who would win the N.H. primary, 65% of respondents answered Trump, while 66% think he will win the Republican nomination.
Voters split on foreign conflicts
As Congress considers a $61.4 billion plan for Ukraine as part of a $110 billion package that includes funding for U.S. security concerns and aid to Israel amid its war with Hamas, questions about aid to U.S. allies fighting conflicts on two continents drew varied responses.
Respondents are divided on the Israel-Hamas conflict. Exactly half (50%) somewhat or strongly support the Republican nominee calling for an immediate ceasefire, while 50% somewhat or strongly oppose it. On providing U.S. aid to Israel, 46% of respondents somewhat (27%) or strongly (19%) support it, while 54% say they somewhat (26%) or strongly (28%) oppose it.
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine nears its second anniversary, 66% of respondents say they somewhat (21%) or strongly (45%) oppose additional assistance, while 34% of respondents somewhat (20%) or strongly (14%) support it. However, voters in the sample still view Vladimir Putin negatively, with 76% holding an unfavorable view of the Russian president and 5% holding a favorable view.
“This survey highlights the ongoing battle over how Americans understand the place of the United States in the world,” said UMass Lowell’s Jarrod Hayes, a foreign policy expert and associate professor of political science. “In the case of both Ukraine and Israel, respondents are split over whether the U.S. should support friendly states and longstanding allies. In the Cold War, such ambivalence would have been unthinkable. Now, in many respects, the U.S. public has returned to a pre-Cold War mentality and the survey bears this out. Unfortunately for Americans, the world is not the same as it was before 1945 and there is little reason to believe Americans’ return to the past will serve the United States well.”
Abortion
Abortion has been a political flash point since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the federal protection for the procedure last year. Yet, poll results show a majority of respondents (67%) support the right to receive an abortion in every state of the nation.
Among respondents who identify as Republicans, 64% say there should be a right to get an abortion in every state. Today’s findings align with results of a 2022 Center for Public Opinion general election poll of 600 likely New Hampshire voters, which found 59% of self-identified Republicans supported access to abortion in every state. Current poll results come a week after the high court announced it will consider two consolidated cases in which the justices’ ruling would determine whether or how mifepristone, a commonly used medication for abortion, would continue to be available for use, even in states where the procedure is allowed.
Respondents say age is more than a number for elected officials
The U.S. Constitution requires candidates for president, U.S. senator and U.S. representative to meet certain minimum age thresholds on the day they are sworn into office, but does not detail maximum age limits. If reelected, Trump would be 78 on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2025, while Biden would be 82.
Among poll respondents, 64% would back a constitutional amendment prohibiting candidates aged 75 or older from holding federal office.
“Respondents here may be tapping into what research shows: At age 70, cognitive ability declines. Given this, people may not have the ability they need to lead well, especially in public office, with that level of responsibility, accountability and exposure. When people stay in roles well into their 70s, they become ‘blockers’ to the next generation of leaders,” said UMass Lowell’s Catherine Rymsha, an authority on succession and talent management who is a visiting faculty lecturer in the university’s Manning School of Business.
The nonpartisan poll was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell, which has more than 16,000 students, alumni and employees from the Granite State. The survey was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov. Detailed poll results, including topline and full methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.
UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion presents events and polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research. The center is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.
About UMass Lowell
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