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Latest N.H. Tracking Poll: Time Running Out for Challengers

Trump, Sanders Continue to Lead With Only Three Days to Primary

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02/06/2016

Detailed poll results are available at www.uml.edu/polls

UMass Lowell representatives are available for interviews about today’s poll results. 

Contact: Christine Gillette, 978-758-4664 (c), 978-934-2209 (w), Christine_Gillette@uml.edu 

The sixth day of results from the UMass Lowell/7News tracking poll of 1,400 New Hampshire voters who were surveyed about candidates in the Feb. 9 Democratic and Republican primaries include:

  • Donald Trump saw his lead among likely Republican primary voters track upward for the first time during this week’s poll. He picked up just one point, reaching 35 percent support from 34 percent. Trump leads nearest rival Marco Rubio, who dropped one point overnight to 14 percent, by 21 points. Ted Cruz dropped one point to 13 percent, John Kasich and Jeb Bush both picked up two points to reach 10 percent, Chris Christie is down one point at 4 percent, and Ben Carson (down one point) and Carly Fiorina (unchanged) are at 3 percent. The percentage of undecided voters was up one point to 9 percent.
  • Bernie Sanders continues to lead the race among likely Democratic primary voters, but lost one point to Hillary Clinton since yesterday’s results. Sanders is now up 14 points over Clinton and holds 55 percent of voter support, compared to 41 percent who favor Clinton. Nineteen percent of those who say they plan to vote for Sanders said they could change their mind before Tuesday’s primary, compared to 16 percent of Clinton supporters.   
  • Among Republicans, Rubio had been gaining ground in New Hampshire after a strong third-place finish in the Iowa caucus. But as some other candidates have started campaigning against him more aggressively, Rubio’s surge appears to have stalled while Kasich and Bush have picked up support and are now tied for third place. Cruz stands at 13 and has not experienced an “Iowa bounce” despite his victory in the Republican caucus. Of the candidates polling at 10 percent or higher, Rubio has the softest support, as 55 percent of voters who say they will vote for him also reporting that they could change their mind before Tuesday’s primary. That “could change mind” number is at 43 percent for Kasich and Bush, 39 percent for Cruz and 22 percent for Trump. So far, none of the other candidates have been able to break away from the pack to challenge Trump’s lead. 
  • Throughout the tracking poll, Sanders has led among Democratic primary voters with both men and women, even as Clinton cut into both leads as she surged from a 31-point deficit to 15 points. The gender gap had started to shrink, but appears to be widening again even though Clinton gained one point in overall support since yesterday’s results. Men support Sanders more than 2-to-1 with 63 percent, compared to 31 percent of male voters who support Clinton. Among women, support for the candidates is now nearly even, with Sanders up just two points, 50 to 48 percent. Women represent 61 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, so if Clinton can continue to gain their support, it could help her gain further on Sanders.
  • Today’s tracking poll results include data on six hypothetical head-to-head match-ups in the general election in New Hampshire, considered a 2016 battleground state. In the match-ups – which look at how Sanders and Clinton might fare against the three highest-polling Republican candidates, Trump, Rubio and Cruz – the Democratic candidates won all but one in which Rubio beat Clinton by one point.
More information about today’s tracking poll results – including analysis, time-trend information for each day of the tracking poll, topline and crosstabs – are available at www.uml.edu/polls.

Each night through Feb. 7, the UMass Lowell/7NEWS tracking poll is asking New Hampshire voters, including likely Democratic and Republican primary voters, about who they plan to vote for, how firm they are on that choice and who they think will be the next president be. Poll results are being released daily at 7 a.m. through Monday, Feb. 8.

Results of the poll being reported today are based on interviews with a random sample of 1,421 New Hampshire registered voters and a sub-sample of 433 Democratic primary likely voters and 501 Republican primary likely voters. Data was collected in live interviewers via landline and cellular telephones over the last three nights. The survey used a probability-based, random-digit-dial methodology with a dual-frame design for landline and cellular telephone surveys conducted by live interviewers. Final results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies based on the American Community Survey for New Hampshire. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percent for all registered voters, plus or minus 4.86 percent for likely Republican primary voters and plus or minus 5.24 percent for likely Democratic primary voters. Additional details on methodology are available at www.uml.edu/polls.

The independent, nonpartisan poll was conducted by UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion in partnership with 7News. More than 12,000 UMass Lowell graduates, students and employees are New Hampshire residents. The Center for Public Opinion hosts programs and conducts polls on political, social, economic and cultural issues to provide real-world opportunities for civic engagement, research and experiential learning to the campus and the community.

The university offers its 17,500 students bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral degrees in business, education, engineering, fine arts, health, humanities, sciences and social sciences. UMass Lowell delivers high-quality educational programs, hands-on learning and personal attention from leading faculty and staff, all of which prepare graduates to be ready for work, for life and for all the world offers. www.uml.edu