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Polls

UMass Lowell teamed up with 7NEWS for a daily New Hampshire tracking poll that will show where each presidential candidate stands and how that changes leading up to the first-in-the-nation primary.

Tracking Poll on 2016 Presidential Races

Feb. 8: Still No Clear Challenger for Trump, Sanders Likely Winner

On the eighth and final release of poll data, the results look remarkably stable even when weighing a variety of surprise scenarios. An upset by Clinton for the Democrats looks unlikely at this point with Sanders at 56 percent (-1), Clinton 40 percent (no change). On the Republican side, the story continues to be who will take second to Trump (21 point lead) with nine percent of Republican voters still undecided for Tuesday's N.H. Primary.

Highlights (pdf) 
Topline (pdf) 
Methodology (pdf)
Press Release

Feb. 7: Republicans Jockey for Second

Much of the poll numbers continue to be static, so the question is who of the Republican candidates can pull into second and if Rubio's disastrous appearance at the Republican debate on Saturday will dash his chances. Trump is at 36% (+1). A Sanders win in the Democratic race seems more likely now that high profile opportunities for Clinton to cut into his lead are over (57%-40%).

Highlights (pdf)
Topline (pdf)
Methodology (pdf)
Press Release


Feb. 6: Much of Field Is Static on Both Sides

Trump and Sanders are still leading by significant margins (21% and 14%, respectively) and there's not a lot of movement in the rest of the field. However, on the Republican side, many voters are still likely to change their minds. Rubio's surge has stalled and Cruz has not seen any bounce from his win in Iowa. Clinton is beginning to make in-roads to the female vote, though Sanders continues to dominate in the youth vote.

Highlights (pdf)
Topline (pdf)
Methodology (pdf)
Press Release


Feb. 5: Race Tightening on Both Sides

Today is the first release with three days of post-Iowa Caucus data. It appears that Clinton’s win in Iowa has led to a sizable bump. She now trails Sanders by 15 points, 55%-40%. Trump continues to lead his nearest Republican challenger by 19 points. Cruz and Rubio show moderate gains.

Highlights (pdf)
Topline (pdf)
Methodology (pdf)
Press Release


Feb. 4: Clinton, Rubio Gaining

While Trump and Sanders still hold significant leads, Clinton and Rubio are showing moderate gains. Rubio is the only candidate from either party who has steadily increased each day of our tracking poll. Cruz, despite winning the Iowa Caucus, does not seem to be enjoying a bounce. 


Topline (pdf)

Feb. 3: Catch Me if You Can

Trump and Sanders continue to have commanding leads. On the Republican side, Sen. Marco Rubio has gained slowly, but steadily, increasing two points each day since the poll’s release on Feb. 1. For the Democrats, Sen. Bernie Sanders has polled over 60 percent in every day of our tracking poll. While Hillary Clinton was able to beat the odds and win the 2008 primary despite trailing in every poll, it remains to be seen if she can mount such a comeback for this election.

Topline (pdf)


Feb. 2: Democrats Certain; Republicans Uncertain

Democrats are considerably more certain in their vote choices, with only 19 percent of Sanders voters and 21 percent of Clinton voters saying that they could change their mind between now and Election Day. But among Republicans, there is considerably less certainty with 44 percent reporting that they could still change their mind. Trump supporters are still the most certain at 69 percent, but this number is down 3 points from yesterday. Iowa offers a clarifying mechanism for suggesting such changes and we will be paying close attention to these changes in the day ahead.    

Topline (pdf)

Feb. 1: Trump and Sanders Lead by Wide Margins

Despite widespread skepticism that their leads would not hold, with just eight days until the New Hampshire Presidential Primary, both Donald Trump, the well-known and controversial businessman/reality show star from New York, and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont lead by wide margins in our survey of New Hampshire likely primary voters. Trump leads by 26 percentage points over his nearest opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, while Sanders leads by 31 percentage points over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.    

Highlights (pdf)
Topline (pdf)
Methodology (pdf)
Press Release